Tech Predictions for 2008
For better or worse - and in no particular order - here they are:
Apple's Mac OS X gained just under 1% market share in 2007, according to a Net Applications report. Mac internet usage was up from 6.38% in February 2007, to 7.31% for December 2007. Apple continues to garner attention with its consumer electronics, such as the iPod and iPhone, but failed to convert many of those buyers from Windows PCs to its Mac platform. However, 2008 will be a strong year for Mac sales. With Mac World coming in just a few days, Apple insiders expect this winter's conference to return Apple's focus to its Mac line for 2008. One of the most expected announcements is a sub-notebook that will retail for $1,500 USD and reports that Apple may incorporate its multi-touch functionality into upcoming computers. Additionally, the PC user discontent with Windows Vista is earning the Mac OS X Leopard some looks from people who would otherwise have stuck with Windows boxes.
Firefox is the fastest growing web browser with 36% market share, according to the W3C Schools website. Firefox growth has come largely at the expense of Internet Explorer (IE), which controls only 56% of the market between its combined versions. The shift towards mobile browsing and increased usage of Mac OS X and Linux will continue to eat away at IE's user base. Popular mobile platforms, such as the iPhone, tend to include mobile versions of the Opera web browser, WebKit (the rendering engine at the root of Apple's Safari browser), or even a version of Mozilla, the technology at the root of Firefox.
Current HD-DVD only studios will expand their releases to include Blu-ray and we'll see more will announcements of Blu-ray only releases, effectively killing HD-DVD. Second time's the charm for Sony?
What Google plans to do with it is still unclear, but my gut tells me they want it.
Linux on the desktop still amounts to less than 1% of all desktop operating systems according to analysts. However, there has been a large amount of movement around Canonical's Ubuntu desktop oriented version the operating system. Dell has become the first mainstream U.S. reseller to preinstall Ubuntu as an alternative to Microsoft's operating systems on its consumer desktop and laptop lines. Interest in desktop Linux is strong and user friendly distributions like Ubuntu will continue to make gains in 2008. However, lack of commercial application support will still hold Linux back from mass adoption.
Sun spent the early 2000's foolishly ignoring the x86 market which today accounts for the vast majority of new server purchases. IDC predicts the Linux market will be worth over $35 billion in `08 and Sun wants a piece of the pie. Sun's answer, make Solaris more Linux-like. In its new-found fixation with openness, Sun open sourced most of Solaris and has set out to make its own "distribution" out of its Open Solaris source code. The only problem is no one will care. Sun, in a move to keep Solaris relevant, will re-release the code under the GPL.
As Steve Ballmer says it's all about developers, developers, developers. Apple needs to attract more Windows only software vendors to Mac OS X, here's how they'll do it.
